Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.61 – 248.15

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

165 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 91.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.3 ±10.5

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 22.62Rank 12Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 17.68Rank 9Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 2.31Rank 5Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 511.7 ±9.8

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 45.84Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 153.77Rank 1Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 48.54Rank 6Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7915, 2830, 2143

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.6 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7915, 2830, 2143

Auto

-2.8 0%

Teleop

44.9 93%

Endgame

6.1 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8744, 1732, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.2 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8744, 1732, 4531

Auto

34.5 14%

Teleop

159.2 65%

Endgame

53.1 22%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score42.6pts

Blue projected score248.2pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample36alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -205.5
Score range: 20–271
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 129.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357.3Season APEX511.7

-2.8Auto34.5

44.9Teleop159.2

6.1Endgame53.1

135Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	25
teleop	94	99
endgame	47	63
foul	0	0
total	165	187

Result

Final score

165 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 91.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree