FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

355.65 – 280.88

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

487 – 424

Prediction correct · off by 137.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 693.9 ±8.7

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 50.61Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 156.81Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 148.23Rank 5Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.3 ±10.4

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 94.32Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 61.69Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 124.87Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10553, 3197, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

355.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10553, 3197, 1732

Auto

91.7 22%

Teleop

245.9 58%

Endgame

83.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2062, 93, 8744

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2062, 93, 8744

Auto

46.4 17%

Teleop

150.1 54%

Endgame

79.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score355.7pts

Blue projected score280.9pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.8
Score range: 233–404
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 911 vs event baseline 267.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

693.9Season APEX371.3

91.7Auto46.4

245.9Teleop150.1

83.5Endgame79

22Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	129	59
teleop	287	213
endgame	71	147
foul	0	5
total	487	424

Result

Final score

487 – 424

Prediction correct · off by 137.2 pts

Match videos

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