Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
376.5 – 366.68
53%47%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
226 – 505
Prediction missed · off by 144.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 529.4 ±9.3
Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 82.8Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 151.42Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 142.28Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 605.3 ±9.3
Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 78.65Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 168.77Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 119.26Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6381, 1259, 7915
84
/ 100 compatProjected
376.5 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6381, 1259, 7915
Auto
64.4 18%
Teleop
212.0 59%
Endgame
85.5 24%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 16%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6421, 2194, 1306
79
/ 100 compatProjected
366.7 pts
~1.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6421, 2194, 1306
Auto
80.4 22%
Teleop
212.3 59%
Endgame
65.2 18%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 16%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.42
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score376.5pts
Blue projected score366.7pts
Red win probability53%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 7%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 9.8
- Score range
- 319–425
- Upset likelihood
- 47%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-17
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
529.4Season APEX605.3
64.4Auto80.4
212Teleop212.3
85.5Endgame65.2
126Consistency63
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 46 | 121 |
| teleop | 96 | 286 |
| endgame | 84 | 98 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 226 | 505 |
Result
Final score
226 – 505
Prediction missed · off by 144.4 pts
Match videos
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