FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

422.77 – 322.86

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 283

Prediction missed · off by 231.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 693.9 ±8.7

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 71.96Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 178.73Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 172.08Rank 5Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 498.2 ±9.3

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 96.57Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 78.39Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 147.9Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10553, 3197, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

422.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10553, 3197, 1732

Auto

90.4 22%

Teleop

242.4 59%

Endgame

80.4 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4786, 706, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4786, 706, 1792

Auto

46.9 15%

Teleop

175.5 55%

Endgame

95.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score422.8pts

Blue projected score322.9pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.9
Score range: 275–471
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 267.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

693.9Season APEX498.2

90.4Auto46.9

242.4Teleop175.5

80.4Endgame95.3

90Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	65
teleop	261	186
endgame	100	32
foul	0	0
total	0	283

Result

Final score

0 – 283

Prediction missed · off by 231.3 pts

Match videos

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