Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
263.23 – 274.3
47%53%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
357 – 227
Prediction missed · off by 70.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.3 ±10.4
Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 85.89Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 55.18Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 122.16Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.4 ±10.4
Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 78.49Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 67Event APEX 63.65Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 132.16Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2062, 93, 8744
68
/ 100 compatProjected
263.2 pts
~1.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2062, 93, 8744
Auto
45.2 17%
Teleop
147.5 56%
Endgame
68.5 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6223, 4021, 6574
69
/ 100 compatProjected
274.3 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6223, 4021, 6574
Auto
62.9 23%
Teleop
148.8 55%
Endgame
58.4 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.72
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score263.2pts
Blue projected score274.3pts
Red win probability47%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 14%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -11.1
- Score range
- 215–322
- Upset likelihood
- 47%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
371.3Season APEX274.4
45.2Auto62.9
147.5Teleop148.8
68.5Endgame58.4
156Consistency102
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 56 | 72 |
| teleop | 169 | 122 |
| endgame | 127 | 23 |
| foul | 5 | 10 |
| total | 357 | 227 |
Result
Final score
357 – 227
Prediction missed · off by 70.5 pts
Match videos
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