FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

308.98 – 345.32

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 91.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 456.7 ±10.4

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 125.26Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 79.03Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 104.69Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 595.2 ±9.3

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 87.96Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 114.67Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 142.69Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2506, 5826, 2826

/ 100 compat

Projected

309 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2506, 5826, 2826

Auto

43.6 14%

Teleop

180.7 59%

Endgame

80.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2202, 1714, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2202, 1714, 930

Auto

56.0 17%

Teleop

182.9 55%

Endgame

96.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score309pts

Blue projected score345.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.3
Score range: 261–393
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 557 vs event baseline 266.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

456.7Season APEX595.2

43.6Auto56

180.7Teleop182.9

80.8Endgame96.3

118Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	63
teleop	72	226
endgame	50	94
foul	0	5
total	169	388

Result

Final score

169 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 91.3 pts

Match videos

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