FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

326.18 – 302.54

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

498 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 109.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 605.3 ±9.3

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 64.26Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 155.31Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 106.61Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.8 ±10.4

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 82.32Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 84.06Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 136.16Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6421, 2194, 1306

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6421, 2194, 1306

Auto

72.0 22%

Teleop

185.9 58%

Endgame

64.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6223, 171, 6574

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6223, 171, 6574

Auto

65.8 22%

Teleop

181.0 60%

Endgame

55.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score326.2pts

Blue projected score302.5pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.6
Score range: 255–374
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 754 vs event baseline 265.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

605.3Season APEX319.8

72Auto65.8

185.9Teleop181

64Endgame55.1

96Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	116	65
teleop	307	89
endgame	70	97
foul	5	5
total	498	256

Result

Final score

498 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 109.2 pts

Match videos

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