FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

385.86 – 266.91

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

304 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 529.4 ±9.3

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 85.17Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 155.25Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 145.44Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.3 ±10.4

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 87.11Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 56.1Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 123.7Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6381, 1259, 7915

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6381, 1259, 7915

Auto

71.2 19%

Teleop

219.3 58%

Endgame

88.0 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2062, 93, 8744

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2062, 93, 8744

Auto

49.1 18%

Teleop

155.9 58%

Endgame

63.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score385.9pts

Blue projected score266.9pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119
Score range: 219–434
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 550 vs event baseline 265.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

529.4Season APEX371.3

71.2Auto49.1

219.3Teleop155.9

88Endgame63.3

119Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	32
teleop	180	109
endgame	68	90
foul	15	15
total	304	246

Result

Final score

304 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 pts

Match videos

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