FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

339.35 – 307.67

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

374 – 386

Prediction missed · off by 56.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 595.2 ±9.3

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 84.82Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 112.43Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 142.1Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 498.2 ±9.3

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 92.05Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 74.06Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 141.56Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2202, 1714, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2202, 1714, 930

Auto

48.8 15%

Teleop

181.2 55%

Endgame

99.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4786, 706, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4786, 706, 1792

Auto

47.0 16%

Teleop

159.3 53%

Endgame

96.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score339.4pts

Blue projected score307.7pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.7
Score range: 261–386
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 760 vs event baseline 263.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

595.2Season APEX498.2

48.8Auto47

181.2Teleop159.3

99.7Endgame96.6

104Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	49
teleop	190	230
endgame	87	97
foul	15	10
total	374	386

Result

Final score

374 – 386

Prediction missed · off by 56.5 pts

Match videos

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