FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

311.05 – 389.78

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

354 – 512

Prediction correct · off by 82.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 498.2 ±9.3

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 92.1Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 73.34Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 145.61Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 693.9 ±8.7

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 62.05Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 168.84Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 158.89Rank 5Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4786, 706, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4786, 706, 1792

Auto

50.0 16%

Teleop

170.3 56%

Endgame

85.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10553, 3197, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

389.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10553, 3197, 1732

Auto

96.9 22%

Teleop

255.2 59%

Endgame

83.5 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score311.1pts

Blue projected score389.8pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.7
Score range: 262–439
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 866 vs event baseline 272.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

498.2Season APEX693.9

50Auto96.9

170.3Teleop255.2

85.5Endgame83.5

115Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	118
teleop	172	301
endgame	130	93
foul	0	0
total	354	512

Result

Final score

354 – 512

Prediction correct · off by 82.6 pts

Match videos

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