FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

328.53 – 373.32

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

264 – 504

Prediction correct · off by 97.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 568.8 ±9.3

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 66.77Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 118.11Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 143.65Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 693.9 ±8.7

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 56.35Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 163.31Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 153.66Rank 5Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4531, 1714, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4531, 1714, 930

Auto

63.6 20%

Teleop

178.2 57%

Endgame

69.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10553, 3197, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

373.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10553, 3197, 1732

Auto

96.6 22%

Teleop

251.6 59%

Endgame

81.5 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score328.5pts

Blue projected score373.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.8
Score range: 280–422
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 768 vs event baseline 271.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

568.8Season APEX693.9

63.6Auto96.6

178.2Teleop251.6

69.2Endgame81.5

127Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	96
teleop	143	278
endgame	96	100
foul	0	30
total	264	504

Result

Final score

264 – 504

Prediction correct · off by 97.6 pts

Match videos

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