FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

316.08 – 389.8

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

279 – 397

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 498.2 ±9.3

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 93.38Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 75.49Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 147.21Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 605.3 ±9.3

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 86.76Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 175.57Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 127.47Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4786, 706, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4786, 706, 1792

Auto

49.2 16%

Teleop

177.2 57%

Endgame

83.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6421, 2194, 1306

/ 100 compat

Projected

389.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6421, 2194, 1306

Auto

86.7 23%

Teleop

225.5 59%

Endgame

70.6 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score316.1pts

Blue projected score389.8pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.7
Score range: 267–439
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 676 vs event baseline 270.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

498.2Season APEX605.3

49.2Auto86.7

177.2Teleop225.5

83.5Endgame70.6

107Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	124
teleop	127	226
endgame	99	47
foul	0	0
total	279	397

Result

Final score

279 – 397

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 pts

Match videos

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