FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

229.25 – 238.66

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 21 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.7 ±10.4

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 28.29Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 87.71Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 113.25Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.3 ±9.8

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 101.14Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 72.27Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 65.25Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10264, 6574, 706

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10264, 6574, 706

Auto

42.6 19%

Teleop

136.7 60%

Endgame

46.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1306, 4531, 537

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1306, 4531, 537

Auto

48.7 21%

Teleop

151.5 64%

Endgame

37.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score229.3pts

Blue projected score238.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.4
Score range: 184–284
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 248.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.7Season APEX409.3

42.6Auto48.7

136.7Teleop151.5

46.8Endgame37.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	57
teleop	107	107
endgame	66	35
foul	0	0
total	227	199

Result

Final score

227 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 21 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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