FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.49 – 292.48

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

175 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 17 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.3 ±10.4

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 36.67Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 47.84Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 72.98Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.5 ±9.8

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 63.43Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 117.81Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 111.24Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2830, 10909, 2826

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2830, 10909, 2826

Auto

29.4 19%

Teleop

89.8 57%

Endgame

39.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9149, 1259, 5586

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9149, 1259, 5586

Auto

42.4 15%

Teleop

169.5 59%

Endgame

75.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score157.5pts

Blue projected score292.5pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -135
Score range: 112–337
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 451 vs event baseline 252.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.3Season APEX331.5

29.4Auto42.4

89.8Teleop169.5

39.1Endgame75.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	36
teleop	81	109
endgame	49	116
foul	0	15
total	175	276

Result

Final score

175 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 17 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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