FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.24 – 304.58

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 53.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.4 ±10.4

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 67.26Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 19.42Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 36.56Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 511.1 ±9.3

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 89.78Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 96.35Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 118.45Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4531, 1675, 5586

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4531, 1675, 5586

Auto

35.5 30%

Teleop

48.3 41%

Endgame

33.1 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2202, 4786, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2202, 4786, 1714

Auto

53.7 18%

Teleop

152.4 52%

Endgame

88.3 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score123.2pts

Blue projected score304.6pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -181.3
Score range: 75–353
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 265.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.4Season APEX511.1

35.5Auto53.7

48.3Teleop152.4

33.1Endgame88.3

139Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	48
teleop	25	103
endgame	24	79
foul	0	5
total	86	235

Result

Final score

86 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 53.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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