Qualification · Qualification 70
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
300.9 – 127.98
90%10%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
303 – 177
Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.5 ±10.4
Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 136.27Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 121.68Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 42.95Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.3 ±10.4
Season APEX 69Event APEX 34.24Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 80.92Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 12.82Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6574, 8744, 8701
70
/ 100 compatProjected
300.9 pts
~2.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6574, 8744, 8701
Auto
50.0 17%
Teleop
177.4 59%
Endgame
73.3 24%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10909, 5826, 6732
48
/ 100 compatProjected
128 pts
~0.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 10909, 5826, 6732
Auto
26.5 21%
Teleop
61.4 49%
Endgame
38.4 30%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.68
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score300.9pts
Blue projected score128pts
Red win probability90%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 172.9
- Score range
- 80–349
- Upset likelihood
- 10%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
319.5Season APEX261.3
50Auto26.5
177.4Teleop61.4
73.3Endgame38.4
93Consistency121
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 84 | 40 |
| teleop | 168 | 102 |
| endgame | 51 | 25 |
| foul | 0 | 10 |
| total | 303 | 177 |
Result
Final score
303 – 177
Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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