FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

216.05 – 340.84

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

234 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.2 ±10.4

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 23.69Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 61.89Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 130.47Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 464.7 ±9.8

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 89.87Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 91.25Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 159.72Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 537, 6421, 2506

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 537, 6421, 2506

Auto

35.4 17%

Teleop

113.1 54%

Endgame

61.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 171, 6381, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 171, 6381, 2194

Auto

86.3 25%

Teleop

183.7 54%

Endgame

68.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score216.1pts

Blue projected score340.8pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.8
Score range: 168–389
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 492 vs event baseline 266.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.2Season APEX464.7

35.4Auto86.3

113.1Teleop183.7

61.1Endgame68.9

145Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	78
teleop	112	153
endgame	82	27
foul	0	0
total	234	258

Result

Final score

234 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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