FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

231.4 – 344.96

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

369 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 137.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 556.5 ±9.8

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 37.38Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 100.07Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 93.95Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.6 ±9.8

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 70.9Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 181.06Rank 5Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 93Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7900, 2826, 1306

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7900, 2826, 1306

Auto

34.5 15%

Teleop

136.1 59%

Endgame

59.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4021, 1732, 6223

/ 100 compat

Projected

345 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4021, 1732, 6223

Auto

68.3 20%

Teleop

197.0 58%

Endgame

72.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score231.4pts

Blue projected score345pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -113.6
Score range: 183–393
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 577 vs event baseline 265.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

556.5Season APEX441.6

34.5Auto68.3

136.1Teleop197

59.5Endgame72.4

52Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	67
teleop	226	139
endgame	70	2
foul	0	0
total	369	208

Result

Final score

369 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 137.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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