FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

398.61 – 306.6

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

390 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 608 ±8.7

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 155.43Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 173.3Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 69.88Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 546.7 ±9.3

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 143.73Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 22.55Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 140.32Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1259, 3197, 10553

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1259, 3197, 10553

Auto

67.6 18%

Teleop

221.6 58%

Endgame

93.7 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7915, 10264, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7915, 10264, 930

Auto

52.5 17%

Teleop

176.3 58%

Endgame

74.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score398.6pts

Blue projected score306.6pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92
Score range: 259–447
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 711 vs event baseline 264.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

608Season APEX546.7

67.6Auto52.5

221.6Teleop176.3

93.7Endgame74.4

108Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	35
teleop	220	186
endgame	88	100
foul	0	0
total	390	321

Result

Final score

390 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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