FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

195.64 – 225.89

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

259 – 180

Prediction missed · off by 54.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.7 ±10.4

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 80.93Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 30.58Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 84.13Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326 ±10.4

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 83.6Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 57.87Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 84.42Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2062, 5586, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2062, 5586, 2202

Auto

45.3 24%

Teleop

92.1 48%

Endgame

55.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 706, 93, 5826

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 706, 93, 5826

Auto

44.0 19%

Teleop

126.9 56%

Endgame

56.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score195.6pts

Blue projected score225.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.2
Score range: 148–274
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 265.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327.7Season APEX326

45.3Auto44

92.1Teleop126.9

55.3Endgame56.7

118Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	15
teleop	159	95
endgame	59	70
foul	15	0
total	259	180

Result

Final score

259 – 180

Prediction missed · off by 54.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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