FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.78 – 168.42

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.7 ±9.8

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 159.98Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 33.32Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 16.48Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.5 ±10.4

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 98.86Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 48.74Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 20.82Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2194, 9149, 1675

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2194, 9149, 1675

Auto

55.4 26%

Teleop

114.3 55%

Endgame

40.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6223, 8701, 6732

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6223, 8701, 6732

Auto

23.5 14%

Teleop

95.6 56%

Endgame

52.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score209.8pts

Blue projected score168.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.4
Score range: 120–258
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 267.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.7Season APEX243.5

55.4Auto23.5

114.3Teleop95.6

40Endgame52

117Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	20
teleop	91	57
endgame	35	18
foul	0	0
total	212	95

Result

Final score

212 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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