FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.68 – 193.23

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

300 – 270

Prediction correct · off by 84.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.8 ±9.8

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 164.97Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 26.21Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 16.5Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.8 ±9.8

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 62.69Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 63.42Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 67.12Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3197, 10909, 537

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3197, 10909, 537

Auto

53.6 27%

Teleop

96.5 48%

Endgame

52.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4531, 10553, 4021

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4531, 10553, 4021

Auto

47.9 26%

Teleop

107.8 59%

Endgame

26.4 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score207.7pts

Blue projected score193.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.5
Score range: 145–256
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 570 vs event baseline 267.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.8Season APEX351.8

53.6Auto47.9

96.5Teleop107.8

52.1Endgame26.4

109Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	57
teleop	190	112
endgame	53	81
foul	0	20
total	300	270

Result

Final score

300 – 270

Prediction correct · off by 84.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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