FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

427.04 – 375.39

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

467 – 451

Prediction correct · off by 57.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.2 ±9.3

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 153Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 135.28Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 138.76Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 758.5 ±8.7

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 111.66Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 174.94Rank 5Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 88.79Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1259, 6574, 7915

/ 100 compat

Projected

427 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1259, 6574, 7915

Auto

90.2 21%

Teleop

257.5 61%

Endgame

73.4 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1714, 1732, 1306

/ 100 compat

Projected

375.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1714, 1732, 1306

Auto

77.9 21%

Teleop

221.0 59%

Endgame

74.0 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score427pts

Blue projected score375.4pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.7
Score range: 328–474
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 918 vs event baseline 263.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.2Season APEX758.5

90.2Auto77.9

257.5Teleop221

73.4Endgame74

124Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	85
teleop	252	254
endgame	136	77
foul	20	35
total	467	451

Result

Final score

467 – 451

Prediction correct · off by 57.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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