FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

282.29 – 226.17

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

431 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 100.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 575.2 ±9.3

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 125.25Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 130.19Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 26.85Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.3 ±10.4

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 26.58Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 103.6Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 95.99Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 930, 1792, 7900

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 930, 1792, 7900

Auto

45.0 16%

Teleop

148.1 54%

Endgame

82.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10264, 2826, 6381

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10264, 2826, 6381

Auto

48.5 22%

Teleop

118.2 55%

Endgame

50.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score282.3pts

Blue projected score226.2pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.1
Score range: 179–329
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 604 vs event baseline 263.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

575.2Season APEX393.3

45Auto48.5

148.1Teleop118.2

82.7Endgame50

98Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	34
teleop	264	93
endgame	131	46
foul	0	0
total	431	173

Result

Final score

431 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 100.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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