FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

343.26 – 336.42

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 112.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 474.5 ±9.8

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 71.28Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 99.05Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 172.93Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 559.7 ±9.3

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 113.02Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 145.96Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 77.44Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5826, 2062, 3197

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5826, 2062, 3197

Auto

73.0 21%

Teleop

192.7 55%

Endgame

87.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1714, 1792, 6223

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1714, 1792, 6223

Auto

67.5 21%

Teleop

189.5 59%

Endgame

66.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score343.3pts

Blue projected score336.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.8
Score range: 286–393
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 275.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

474.5Season APEX559.7

73Auto67.5

192.7Teleop189.5

87.5Endgame66.6

106Consistency143

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	67
teleop	161	119
endgame	23	14
foul	0	5
total	250	205

Result

Final score

250 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 112.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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