FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

250.98 – 287.33

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

176 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 81.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.6 ±10.4

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 31Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 133.22Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 86.76Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.6 ±9.8

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 171.75Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 75.43Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 40.15Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6732, 8744, 2062

/ 100 compat

Projected

251 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6732, 8744, 2062

Auto

43.9 17%

Teleop

143.3 57%

Endgame

64.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3197, 4021, 5586

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3197, 4021, 5586

Auto

52.2 18%

Teleop

138.2 49%

Endgame

92.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score251pts

Blue projected score287.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.3
Score range: 204–334
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 263.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.6Season APEX371.6

43.9Auto52.2

143.3Teleop138.2

64.2Endgame92.6

144Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	49
teleop	90	74
endgame	56	56
foul	0	20
total	176	199

Result

Final score

176 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 81.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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