FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

245.42 – 430.3

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

230 – 347

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.9 ±9.8

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 19.89Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 86.52Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 139.01Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 709.9 ±8.7

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 182.87Rank 5Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 76.54Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 170.89Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1675, 1306, 6574

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1675, 1306, 6574

Auto

51.0 21%

Teleop

156.2 63%

Endgame

39.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1732, 10553, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

430.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1732, 10553, 2194

Auto

99.9 24%

Teleop

251.2 60%

Endgame

70.8 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score245.4pts

Blue projected score430.3pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -184.9
Score range: 198–477
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 577 vs event baseline 263.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.9Season APEX709.9

51Auto99.9

156.2Teleop251.2

39Endgame70.8

69Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	105
teleop	105	223
endgame	66	14
foul	0	5
total	230	347

Result

Final score

230 – 347

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.