FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

377.84 – 224.85

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

273 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 60.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.3 ±9.3

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 137.9Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 161.68Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 78.26Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.5 ±10.4

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 18.23Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 102.62Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 104Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1792, 1259, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

377.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1792, 1259, 4531

Auto

76.7 21%

Teleop

207.8 56%

Endgame

84.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 537, 2826, 6223

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 537, 2826, 6223

Auto

42.9 19%

Teleop

134.9 61%

Endgame

44.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score377.8pts

Blue projected score224.9pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 153
Score range: 178–425
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 482 vs event baseline 263.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.3Season APEX360.5

76.7Auto42.9

207.8Teleop134.9

84.9Endgame44.8

141Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	53
teleop	185	134
endgame	21	7
foul	30	15
total	273	209

Result

Final score

273 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 60.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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