Qualification · Qualification 56
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
79.32 – 274.36
8%92%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
111 – 314
Prediction correct · off by 35.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.7 ±10.4
Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 32.16Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 24.37Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 22.79Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 90.19Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 134.53Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 49.64Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9149, 10264, 7900
31
/ 100 compatProjected
79.3 pts
~0.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9149, 10264, 7900
Auto
20.6 27%
Teleop
18.7 25%
Endgame
36.3 48%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 171, 7915, 8701
67
/ 100 compatProjected
274.4 pts
~2.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 171, 7915, 8701
Auto
49.0 18%
Teleop
155.4 56%
Endgame
72.4 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.55 · Blue 2.48
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score79.3pts
Blue projected score274.4pts
Red win probability8%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 32%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 10%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -195
- Score range
- 31–322
- Upset likelihood
- 8%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
217.7Season APEX417.1
20.6Auto49
18.7Teleop155.4
36.3Endgame72.4
128Consistency91
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 28 | 51 |
| teleop | 46 | 191 |
| endgame | 37 | 72 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 111 | 314 |
Result
Final score
111 – 314
Prediction correct · off by 35.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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