Qualification · Qualification 55
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
295.62 – 237.26
67%33%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
259 – 193
Prediction correct · off by 40.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.3 ±9.8
Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 127.76Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 67.54Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 100.32Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.9 ±9.8
Season APEX 91Event APEX 84.71Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 114.55Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 69Event APEX 38Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 930, 6421, 6381
71
/ 100 compatProjected
295.6 pts
~1.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 930, 6421, 6381
Auto
53.8 19%
Teleop
149.1 52%
Endgame
86.2 30%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 706, 1714, 10909
62
/ 100 compatProjected
237.3 pts
~1.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 706, 1714, 10909
Auto
43.3 19%
Teleop
113.2 49%
Endgame
75.8 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.11
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score295.6pts
Blue projected score237.3pts
Red win probability67%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 42%, blue 36%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 8%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 58.4
- Score range
- 189–344
- Upset likelihood
- 33%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
455.3Season APEX380.9
53.8Auto43.3
149.1Teleop113.2
86.2Endgame75.8
100Consistency100
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 31 | 32 |
| teleop | 145 | 111 |
| endgame | 63 | 50 |
| foul | 20 | 0 |
| total | 259 | 193 |
Result
Final score
259 – 193
Prediction correct · off by 40.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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