FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

231.43 – 429.18

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

179 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 64.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.6 ±10.4

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 45.39Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 138.94Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 47.1Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 505.7 ±9.3

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 103.73Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 146.96Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 178.49Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5586, 8744, 93

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5586, 8744, 93

Auto

32.8 14%

Teleop

137.9 60%

Endgame

60.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4786, 6574, 3197

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4786, 6574, 3197

Auto

75.9 18%

Teleop

246.6 58%

Endgame

102.0 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score231.4pts

Blue projected score429.2pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -197.7
Score range: 183–477
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 532 vs event baseline 265.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.6Season APEX505.7

32.8Auto75.9

137.9Teleop246.6

60.4Endgame102

139Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	94
teleop	99	180
endgame	32	74
foul	0	5
total	179	353

Result

Final score

179 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 64.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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