FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

388.19 – 236.66

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 81.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 588.9 ±9.8

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 86.06Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 183.85Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 118.28Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.1 ±9.3

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 80.46Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 18.75Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 137.45Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2202, 2194, 2826

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2202, 2194, 2826

Auto

67.1 18%

Teleop

215.5 57%

Endgame

98.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10553, 537, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10553, 537, 1792

Auto

53.4 23%

Teleop

134.0 59%

Endgame

40.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score388.2pts

Blue projected score236.7pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 151.5
Score range: 189–436
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 461 vs event baseline 266.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

588.9Season APEX479.1

67.1Auto53.4

215.5Teleop134

98Endgame40.3

85Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	67
teleop	148	97
endgame	14	40
foul	0	15
total	242	219

Result

Final score

242 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 81.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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