Qualification · Qualification 52
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
225.97 – 186.86
62%38%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
223 – 122
Prediction correct · off by 33.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 19.77Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 75.34Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 130.86Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.7 ±10.4
Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 34.39Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 27.75Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 124.72Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7900, 4531, 7915
64
/ 100 compatProjected
226 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7900, 4531, 7915
Auto
60.6 27%
Teleop
118.2 52%
Endgame
47.7 21%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6732, 1675, 2506
53
/ 100 compatProjected
186.9 pts
~1.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6732, 1675, 2506
Auto
19.5 11%
Teleop
93.2 51%
Endgame
71.5 39%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.22
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score226pts
Blue projected score186.9pts
Red win probability62%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 46%, blue 40%
Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 39.1
- Score range
- 139–274
- Upset likelihood
- 38%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
413.6Season APEX270.7
60.6Auto19.5
118.2Teleop93.2
47.7Endgame71.5
141Consistency146
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 78 | 27 |
| teleop | 110 | 54 |
| endgame | 35 | 41 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 223 | 122 |
Result
Final score
223 – 122
Prediction correct · off by 33.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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