FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.95 – 234.69

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 104.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.3 ±9.8

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 15.13Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 14.98Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 105.84Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.7 ±10.4

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 104.41Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 83.18Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 47.1Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10264, 2830, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

136 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10264, 2830, 1714

Auto

39.8 30%

Teleop

58.9 44%

Endgame

34.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 171, 4021, 9149

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 171, 4021, 9149

Auto

29.5 13%

Teleop

124.0 54%

Endgame

74.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score136pts

Blue projected score234.7pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98.7
Score range: 87–284
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 269.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.3Season APEX241.7

39.8Auto29.5

58.9Teleop124

34.8Endgame74.9

145Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	35
teleop	110	27
endgame	49	52
foul	15	0
total	224	114

Result

Final score

224 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 104.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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