Qualification · Qualification 50
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
135.95 – 234.69
23%77%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
224 – 114
Prediction missed · off by 104.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.3 ±9.8
Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 15.13Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 14.98Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 105.84Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.7 ±10.4
Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 104.41Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 67Event APEX 83.18Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 47.1Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10264, 2830, 1714
49
/ 100 compatProjected
136 pts
~0.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 10264, 2830, 1714
Auto
39.8 30%
Teleop
58.9 44%
Endgame
34.8 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 171, 4021, 9149
59
/ 100 compatProjected
234.7 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 171, 4021, 9149
Auto
29.5 13%
Teleop
124.0 54%
Endgame
74.9 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.05
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score136pts
Blue projected score234.7pts
Red win probability23%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 34%, blue 40%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 9%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -98.7
- Score range
- 87–284
- Upset likelihood
- 23%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
361.3Season APEX241.7
39.8Auto29.5
58.9Teleop124
34.8Endgame74.9
145Consistency111
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 50 | 35 |
| teleop | 110 | 27 |
| endgame | 49 | 52 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 224 | 114 |
Result
Final score
224 – 114
Prediction missed · off by 104.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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