FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

282.72 – 87.09

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.8 ±10.4

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 61.17Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 91.43Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 130.12Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.2 ±10.4

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 47.52Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 22.61Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 16.96Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4021, 2202, 6574

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4021, 2202, 6574

Auto

67.0 25%

Teleop

137.4 51%

Endgame

67.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8701, 10264, 1675

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8701, 10264, 1675

Auto

13.3 17%

Teleop

33.9 42%

Endgame

33.4 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score282.7pts

Blue projected score87.1pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 195.6
Score range: 37–333
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 275.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.8Season APEX223.2

67Auto13.3

137.4Teleop33.9

67.3Endgame33.4

100Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	10
teleop	171	37
endgame	60	52
foul	10	0
total	307	99

Result

Final score

307 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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