FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

245.47 – 454.17

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

270 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 97.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.1 ±9.8

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 77.73Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 41.52Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 126.22Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.1 ±9.3

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 193.7Rank 5Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 85.66Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 174.81Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5826, 8701, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5826, 8701, 930

Auto

35.1 14%

Teleop

136.9 56%

Endgame

71.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1732, 6421, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

454.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1732, 6421, 1259

Auto

71.8 16%

Teleop

253.1 57%

Endgame

119.4 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score245.5pts

Blue projected score454.2pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -208.7
Score range: 196–503
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 553 vs event baseline 269.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.1Season APEX577.1

35.1Auto71.8

136.9Teleop253.1

71.3Endgame119.4

91Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	86
teleop	175	157
endgame	47	35
foul	0	5
total	270	283

Result

Final score

270 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 97.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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