Qualification · Qualification 48
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
139.78 – 263.14
18%82%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
159 – 212
Prediction correct · off by 35.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 91.21Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 16.34Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 32.23Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.6 ±9.3
Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 138.63Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 88.61Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 35.9Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4786, 537, 6732
45
/ 100 compatProjected
139.8 pts
~0.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4786, 537, 6732
Auto
33.1 24%
Teleop
48.6 36%
Endgame
55.1 40%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7915, 10553, 1675
65
/ 100 compatProjected
263.1 pts
~2.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7915, 10553, 1675
Auto
51.9 20%
Teleop
156.6 60%
Endgame
52.9 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.1
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score139.8pts
Blue projected score263.1pts
Red win probability18%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 34%, blue 37%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -123.4
- Score range
- 91–312
- Upset likelihood
- 18%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
286.6Season APEX487.6
33.1Auto51.9
48.6Teleop156.6
55.1Endgame52.9
143Consistency116
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 37 | 47 |
| teleop | 85 | 139 |
| endgame | 37 | 11 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 159 | 212 |
Result
Final score
159 – 212
Prediction correct · off by 35.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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