FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

280.06 – 355.52

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

275 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.2 ±9.8

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 12.69Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 139.65Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 127.72Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582.6 ±9.3

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 50.09Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 195.51Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 109.92Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10264, 1792, 8744

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10264, 1792, 8744

Auto

48.6 18%

Teleop

147.3 54%

Endgame

78.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 93, 2194, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

355.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 93, 2194, 1714

Auto

108.7 31%

Teleop

193.1 55%

Endgame

49.0 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score280.1pts

Blue projected score355.5pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.5
Score range: 231–405
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 577 vs event baseline 273.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.2Season APEX582.6

48.6Auto108.7

147.3Teleop193.1

78Endgame49

139Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	26
teleop	174	210
endgame	53	66
foul	0	0
total	275	302

Result

Final score

275 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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