Qualification · Qualification 45
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
207.45 – 408.76
8%92%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
154 – 402
Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.3 ±10.4
Season APEX 67Event APEX 86.32Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 18.45Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 102.68Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 512.8 ±9.8
Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 75.85Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 192.52Rank 5Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 140.39Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4021, 2830, 6381
59
/ 100 compatProjected
207.5 pts
~0.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4021, 2830, 6381
Auto
42.8 21%
Teleop
105.1 52%
Endgame
54.5 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5826, 1732, 6574
86
/ 100 compatProjected
408.8 pts
~2.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5826, 1732, 6574
Auto
81.9 20%
Teleop
237.0 59%
Endgame
81.8 20%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.58
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score207.5pts
Blue projected score408.8pts
Red win probability8%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 40%, blue 57%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 14%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -201.3
- Score range
- 158–458
- Upset likelihood
- 8%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
242.3Season APEX512.8
42.8Auto81.9
105.1Teleop237
54.5Endgame81.8
105Consistency114
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 39 | 97 |
| teleop | 81 | 263 |
| endgame | 34 | 42 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 154 | 402 |
Result
Final score
154 – 402
Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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