FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

292.71 – 307.55

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

192 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 70.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.6 ±9.8

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 82.3Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 97.05Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 113.36Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 486.1 ±9.8

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 108.03Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 164.59Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 34.93Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1306, 706, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1306, 706, 171

Auto

46.6 16%

Teleop

182.4 62%

Endgame

65.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2826, 1259, 8701

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2826, 1259, 8701

Auto

35.9 12%

Teleop

169.1 55%

Endgame

102.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score292.7pts

Blue projected score307.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.8
Score range: 244–357
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 540 vs event baseline 272.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.6Season APEX486.1

46.6Auto35.9

182.4Teleop169.1

65.5Endgame102.2

43Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	36
teleop	80	234
endgame	86	63
foul	0	15
total	192	348

Result

Final score

192 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 70.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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