FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.93 – 252.94

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

131 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 65.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.9 ±9.8

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 49.75Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 17.26Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 81.92Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435.7 ±9.8

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 126.82Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 116.45Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 9.67Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 93, 10264, 10553

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 93, 10264, 10553

Auto

34.0 24%

Teleop

85.5 60%

Endgame

21.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1792, 2506, 10909

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1792, 2506, 10909

Auto

53.8 21%

Teleop

127.3 50%

Endgame

73.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score148.9pts

Blue projected score252.9pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104
Score range: 100–302
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 497 vs event baseline 273.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.9Season APEX435.7

34Auto53.8

85.5Teleop127.3

21.9Endgame73.9

147Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	33
teleop	67	204
endgame	9	109
foul	5	20
total	131	366

Result

Final score

131 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 65.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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