FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

306.04 – 437.07

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

355 – 341

Prediction missed · off by 72.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.5 ±9.8

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 80.28Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 98.1Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 127.66Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.2 ±9.8

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 141.34Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 199.43Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 96.3Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2202, 6381, 7915

/ 100 compat

Projected

306 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2202, 6381, 7915

Auto

79.3 26%

Teleop

167.2 55%

Endgame

55.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8744, 2194, 5826

/ 100 compat

Projected

437.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8744, 2194, 5826

Auto

83.6 20%

Teleop

241.9 56%

Endgame

103.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score306pts

Blue projected score437.1pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -131
Score range: 257–486
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 696 vs event baseline 271.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.5Season APEX495.2

79.3Auto83.6

167.2Teleop241.9

55.5Endgame103.2

127Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	80
teleop	173	193
endgame	114	68
foul	0	0
total	355	341

Result

Final score

355 – 341

Prediction missed · off by 72.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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