Qualification · Qualification 40
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
312.63 – 190.74
82%18%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
304 – 224
Prediction correct · off by 20.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.3 ±9.3
Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 98.55Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 125.12Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 67Event APEX 88.96Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.7 ±10.4
Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 83.94Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 62.4Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 44.4Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4786, 930, 4021
67
/ 100 compatProjected
312.6 pts
~2.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4786, 930, 4021
Auto
30.1 10%
Teleop
171.2 57%
Endgame
100.7 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 14%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6223, 4531, 9149
58
/ 100 compatProjected
190.7 pts
~0.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6223, 4531, 9149
Auto
31.0 17%
Teleop
98.2 53%
Endgame
55.7 30%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 14%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.82
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score312.6pts
Blue projected score190.7pts
Red win probability82%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 43%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 121.9
- Score range
- 142–362
- Upset likelihood
- 18%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
476.3Season APEX257.7
30.1Auto31
171.2Teleop98.2
100.7Endgame55.7
69Consistency180
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 44 | 54 |
| teleop | 156 | 142 |
| endgame | 104 | 28 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 304 | 224 |
Result
Final score
304 – 224
Prediction correct · off by 20.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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