Qualification · Qualification 4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
301.43 – 190.6
80%20%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
354 – 222
Prediction correct · off by 42 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 562.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 67.22Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 115.71Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 118.5Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.3 ±10.4
Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 133.91Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 25.13Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 31.56Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10553, 1306, 2506
66
/ 100 compatProjected
301.4 pts
~2.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 10553, 1306, 2506
Auto
56.5 18%
Teleop
190.7 59%
Endgame
75.1 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8744, 537, 9149
58
/ 100 compatProjected
190.6 pts
~0.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8744, 537, 9149
Auto
40.0 22%
Teleop
96.8 53%
Endgame
45.8 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.81
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score301.4pts
Blue projected score190.6pts
Red win probability80%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 34%
Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 110.8
- Score range
- 141–351
- Upset likelihood
- 20%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
562.9Season APEX243.3
56.5Auto40
190.7Teleop96.8
75.1Endgame45.8
43Consistency142
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 38 | 28 |
| teleop | 255 | 105 |
| endgame | 56 | 84 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 354 | 222 |
Result
Final score
354 – 222
Prediction correct · off by 42 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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