FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

287.66 – 199.21

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

341 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.9 ±9.8

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 120.02Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 94.04Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 73.6Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.2 ±10.4

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 113.48Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 60.2Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 25.53Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7915, 5826, 6223

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7915, 5826, 6223

Auto

53.7 19%

Teleop

172.4 61%

Endgame

58.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6381, 93, 10909

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6381, 93, 10909

Auto

57.4 29%

Teleop

109.8 55%

Endgame

31.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score287.7pts

Blue projected score199.2pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.5
Score range: 150–337
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 463 vs event baseline 271.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.9Season APEX291.2

53.7Auto57.4

172.4Teleop109.8

58.6Endgame31.4

157Consistency196

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	45
teleop	201	49
endgame	78	28
foul	0	0
total	341	122

Result

Final score

341 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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