Skip to content
Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

434.55 – 312.99

82%18%
Actual result
Winner

Red alliance

Final score

445 – 432

Prediction correct · off by 64.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 507.4 ±9.3
2194Fondy Fire
A
Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 199.94Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
4021igKnightion
D
Season APEX 67Event APEX 90.13Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
1259Paradigm Shift
B
Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 144.48Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.2 ±9.8
6574Ferradermis
C
Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 108.92Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
171Cheese Curd Herd
C
Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 85.86Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100
1792Round Table Robotics
A
Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 118.21Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2194, 4021, 1259
88
/ 100 compat
Projected
434.6 pts
~2.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2194, 4021, 1259
Auto
91.1 21%
Teleop
237.6 55%
Endgame
103.5 24%
Strengths
  • · Well-balanced across phases
  • · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 19%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6574, 171, 1792
74
/ 100 compat
Projected
313 pts
~1.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6574, 171, 1792
Auto
68.0 22%
Teleop
176.2 57%
Endgame
63.0 21%
Strengths
  • · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 19%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.15
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score434.6pts
Blue projected score313pts
Red win probability82%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 57%
Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 20%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
121.6
Score range
265–483
Upset likelihood
18%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match
High scoring

Combined score 877 vs event baseline 266.4.

← PreviousNext →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

507.4Season APEX470.2
91.1Auto68
237.6Teleop176.2
103.5Endgame63
105Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto6990
teleop241258
endgame12084
foul150
total445432

Result

Final score

445 – 432

Prediction correct · off by 64.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.