FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

214.97 – 320.96

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

255 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437.4 ±9.8

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 187.94Rank 5Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 42.23Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -15.2Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.3 ±9.8

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 117.67Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 42.2Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 161.09Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 6732, 7900

/ 100 compat

Projected

215 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1732, 6732, 7900

Auto

70.1 33%

Teleop

94.2 44%

Endgame

49.0 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2506, 9149, 3197

/ 100 compat

Projected

321 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2506, 9149, 3197

Auto

45.9 15%

Teleop

162.2 52%

Endgame

103.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score215pts

Blue projected score321pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106
Score range: 166–370
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 564 vs event baseline 270.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437.4Season APEX414.3

70.1Auto45.9

94.2Teleop162.2

49Endgame103.6

197Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	49
teleop	117	175
endgame	108	85
foul	0	0
total	255	309

Result

Final score

255 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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