FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

276.53 – 306.85

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

314 – 232

Prediction missed · off by 56.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.5 ±9.8

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 141.39Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 100.63Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 34.51Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 408.6 ±10.4

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 113.85Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 94.01Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 98.99Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8744, 1714, 1675

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8744, 1714, 1675

Auto

58.2 22%

Teleop

147.4 55%

Endgame

64.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 706, 6421, 2826

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 706, 6421, 2826

Auto

48.0 16%

Teleop

147.1 49%

Endgame

107.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score276.5pts

Blue projected score306.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.3
Score range: 228–356
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 546 vs event baseline 270.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.5Season APEX408.6

58.2Auto48

147.4Teleop147.1

64.2Endgame107.7

147Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	30
teleop	180	131
endgame	90	66
foul	0	5
total	314	232

Result

Final score

314 – 232

Prediction missed · off by 56.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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