FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.02 – 264.62

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.7 ±10.4

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 26.06Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 43.49Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 89.47Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 389.2 ±9.8

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 120.48Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 75.55Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 68.59Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8701, 537, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

159 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8701, 537, 2202

Auto

29.6 19%

Teleop

49.7 31%

Endgame

79.0 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4786, 2062, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4786, 2062, 4531

Auto

47.7 18%

Teleop

167.7 63%

Endgame

51.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score159pts

Blue projected score264.6pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -105.6
Score range: 110–314
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 273.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.7Season APEX389.2

29.6Auto47.7

49.7Teleop167.7

79Endgame51

147Consistency183

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	50
teleop	51	105
endgame	39	49
foul	0	15
total	112	219

Result

Final score

112 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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