FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.38 – 296.05

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 523

Prediction correct · off by 122.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.7 ±10.4

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 20.91Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 83.23Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 32.24Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 749.8 ±8.7

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 44.86Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 143.15Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 108.04Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10909, 5826, 10264

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10909, 5826, 10264

Auto

32.6 25%

Teleop

54.8 42%

Endgame

44.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1306, 2194, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1306, 2194, 930

Auto

52.7 18%

Teleop

195.9 67%

Endgame

44.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score136.4pts

Blue projected score296.1pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -159.7
Score range: 87–345
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 677 vs event baseline 271.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.7Season APEX749.8

32.6Auto52.7

54.8Teleop195.9

44Endgame44

152Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	112
teleop	73	284
endgame	46	127
foul	5	0
total	154	523

Result

Final score

154 – 523

Prediction correct · off by 122.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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